UK:Average real wages are still at 2004 levels

Average real wages are still at 2004 levels and it will take until 2020 before they return to their 2009 peak, according to the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR).

Angela Monaghan
The Guardian, Friday 7 February 2014

The Bank of England's Governor Mark Carney,
last year said he was not expecting the jobless rate to fall to 7% until 2016. It is now 7.1%.
Photograph: Reuters

Britons will have to wait six more years before their inflation-adjusted wages are back at pre-crisis levels and it "feels" like recovery, a leading thinktank has warned.

Average real wages are still at 2004 levels and it will take until 2020 before they return to their 2009 peak, according to the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR).

"It's a long way off," said Simon Kirby, principal research fellow at the thinktank. "It will take a number of years before people actually start to feel the recovery."

The gradual rise in wages could take even longer if Britain's productivity performance, which has been "abysmal" in recent years, did not improve, he said.

NIESR's stark reminder of the continued squeeze in UK living standards came despite it upgrading its forecasts for growth in the broader economy. It said in its quarterly review that recovery appeared to be "entrenched" following annual growth of 1.9% in 2013.

It is now expecting growth to accelerate to 2.5% in 2014, significantly higher than its November prediction for this year of 2%.

The revised figure would put growth in Britain ahead of the average for the major developed nations among the members of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.

UK GDP is expected to return to its pre-crisis peak in the third quarter of this year, and NIESR forecasts growth of 2.1% in both 2015 and 2016.

The main driver of the upwardly revised forecast is consumer spending, which is expected to rise by 3.4% this year – the biggest jump since 2003. NIESR put this down to an "even more buoyant" housing market than it had been predicting three months ago, propped up by government schemes such as Help to Buy.

Average UK house prices will rise by 6.3% in 2014, it has forecast, almost double the rate in 2013 based on a measure used by the Office for National Statistics. House price growth is then expected to moderate to 3.2% in 2015, and between 0.5% and 1% per year over the period 2016 to 2018, as the effects of

temporary policy support diminish and rising mortgage rates from 2015 dampen the market.

NIESR said the domestically driven recovery would also be helped by business investment, which is expected to jump 9.6% this year as the rise in consumer spending makes companies more confident about the prospects for future demand.

Exports are not expected to contribute to overall growth until 2016 as domestic demand for UK and imported goods outweighs foreign demand for UK goods. "The hoped-for balanced recovery has yet to appear," Kirby said. "In the near term, we expect the deficit on the UK's external trade balance to widen."

NIESR said that the faster-than-expected fall in unemployment in Britain had been "a welcome surprise", but criticised the Bank of England's confusing message over forward guidance, under which the Bank said it would not consider raising interest rates until the unemployment rate has fallen to 7%.

When the Bank's governor, Mark Carney, announced this in August, policymakers were not expecting the jobless rate to fall to 7% until 2016. It is now 7.1% and expected to fall below 7% within a matter of weeks.

However, NIESR is not expecting the Bank to raise interest rates until the second quarter of 2015. Rates have been on hold at an all-time low of 0.5% for five years.

"I don't think the Bank of England is going to take a risk with a relatively weak recovery by historical standards. However, Bank communications have added to rather than reduced uncertainty about forward guidance in the future. Whatever approach the MPC takes, it risks some loss of credibility," Kirby said.

The Bank is expected to clarify its position next week when it publishes its updated forecasts in the February inflation report. It left interest rates on hold at its February policy meeting on Thursday.

NIESR said it was as yet unclear what impact recent volatility in some emerging market economies would have on the UK and other developed economies.


It is predicting global growth of 3.7% in 2014 and 2015 - an improvement on growth of 3.1% last year "but still a sluggish recovery by historical standards".

UK:Recession caused more marriages to end, official figures show

A divorce every five minutes in 2012, 
There were 118,140 divorces in 2012

EMILY DUGAN
SOCIAL AFFAIRS CORRESPONDENT  The Independent
Thursday 06 February 2014

The number of couples divorcing went up in the aftermath of the recession, according to the latest official figures, which show 13 divorces happened every hour in 2012.

There were 118,140 divorces in 2012, up 0.5 per cent on 2011, the Office for National Statistics said. Almost half of these occurred in the first 10 years of marriage.

Older people are now more likely to divorce than before, while the numbers of marriages ending amongst those in their early twenties has gone down. The number of women aged 60 and over divorcing is up more than three per cent since 2011, to 6,026 women. Amongst men the increase is 2.8 per cent, to 9,703.

Meanwhile, the number of under-20s divorcing is at its lowest since 1963, with just two men and 25 women granted a divorce in 2012.

Analysis by statisticians at ONS said the recession and its aftermath might explain the overall rise in divorces. The statistics authority said: “One theory suggests that recession could contribute to a rise in partnership break-ups because of increased financial strain, changes in employment and related lifestyle

changes... In addition some individuals may believe they will get a more favourable divorce settlement if their income is currently low.”

Couples waiting for the economy to pick up may also have played a part, according to ONS, since the economy came out of its double dip recession in 2012. ONS said: “An alternative theory suggests that partnerships would be less likely to dissolve in an unfavourable economic climate because of an increase in

family solidarity during difficult times and the need to postpone marital break-ups until the economy, and the value of their home improves.”

The rise goes against a general trend of declining divorce numbers over the last decade, which has happened alongside a reduction in the numbers marrying in the first place. The number of divorces in 2012 is still almost a fifth lower than it was a decade earlier.

Ruth Sutherland, Chief Executive of Relate, said: “We are saddened by the news that the number of divorces has risen slightly in 2012, especially as they had been in decline for the past few years. However, it’s important to remember that divorce figures only capture part of the picture of our relationship health. For

example, we hear anecdotally that more couples are now living together because they can’t afford to separate, and we know that the number of couples in cohabiting relationships has increased. Divorce rates don’t tell us the full story for these couples.

“What matters to us is the quality of a relationship, rather than status. Ultimately, people’s happiness and wellbeing is of paramount importance and strong couple relationships are proven to be an important part of that.

According to ONS projections, it is expected that 42 per cent of marriages will now end in divorce. One in seven divorces was registered as happening as a result of adultery and almost half of couples dissolving their marriage had at least one child under-16.

Compared with 2002, divorce rates in England and Wales are higher in 2012 for men aged 50 and above and for women aged 45 and above, while divorce rates for below those ages are lower.

The mean age for men ending their marriage is 44.7 years-old, up from 44.5 in 2011. For women it is 42.2, up from 42.1 years in 2011.

Divorce lawyer Marilyn Stowe said she was not surprised to see divorce numbers increase. “I believe the economic situation, with the UK falling in and out of recession, has played a key role: a greater number of businesses go into liquidation when a country emerges from recession, and in my experience this

principle applies to marriages too. Couples will struggle through times of adversity as best they can, but eventually find that despite their best efforts, they simply can’t go on any longer.”

Women in their late twenties had the highest divorce rates of all female age groups, with 23.6 divorcing per thousand married women aged 25 to 29 in 2012. This continues a pattern seen over the last two decades.

The change in the age that people are most likely to end a union is in part because people are getting married later in life and a trend for people remarrying, according to ONS. Almost one in ten divorces were for people who already had a previous marriage.

BP boss: Great Britain is great and it ought to stay together

BP boss: Great Britain is great and it ought to stay together
Michael Settle
UK Political Editor
Tuesday 4 February 2014

The head of BP has claimed there are "big uncertainties" for the oil giant over the possibility of Scotland becoming independent.

Bob Dudley told the BBC there were "quite big uncertainties" over currency, European links and tax regimes if Scotland becomes independent.

However, he emphasised the firm was continuing to invest in Scotland, saying: "We have a lot of people in Scotland. We have a lot of investments in Scotland. My personal view is that Great Britain is great and it ought to stay together."

BP plans to invest £10bn in the North Sea between 2011 and 2016, its highest ever investment in the region.

Mr Dudley said: "I'm not concerned but there's enough uncertainty and talk about it and questions raised.

"It would create extra costs for our business. We have to duplicate the centres and do things, and again the currency question I don't know the answer to."

BP's future in the North Sea in the event of independence "would depend on what it really led to", he said.

"These investments are big, they are under way, we want to see them developed. It depends on what tax regimes are there and it depends on currency."

He added: "We have got a lot of people in Scotland, we have got a lot of investments in Scotland.

"There's much debate about what would happen with the currency, and of course whether there are connections with Europe or not.

"These are quite big uncertainties for us, and at the moment we are continuing to invest at a pace because these projects are under way.

"But it's a question mark. I think all businesses have a concern."

A Yes Scotland spokesman said: "A shared currency is in the overwhelming economic interests of both Scotland and the rest of the UK.

"This was the view of the (Scottish Government's) Fiscal Commission Working Group last year.

"With independence, the continued use of sterling has the overwhelming support of the people of Scotland and the public in the rest of the UK."

Better Together chief Alistair Darling said: "This is perhaps the biggest intervention by a major business so far in the referendum debate.

"I hope that more companies and business leaders speak out over the coming weeks and months. This debate is far too important to be left to politicians alone.

"Bob Dudley is quite right to express concern about the issue of currency. It is far from certain what currency we would use if we vote to leave the UK."

Labour's shadow energy minister Tom Greatrex said: "The warning of uncertainty, instability and impact on activity from BP today is one that echoes concerns expressed by others in the energy sector, including SSE, Scottish Power and Infinis.

"As Sir Ian Wood's influential interim report on the future of the North Sea made it clear that we need greater collaboration and co-operation to get the most from this diminishing resource. In oil and gas, as in other sectors, it makes no sense for us to be talking about putting up barriers and making business more
difficult."

Mr Dudley's  remarks can only be interpreted as a clear warning of what might happen if Scotland goes independent and will do nothing to help Alex Salmond's insistence that everything will be fine if Scots say Yes this September.

Coming just a few days after Mark Carney, the Govenor of the Bank of England, noted how currency union would mean an independent Scotland ceding sovereignty to a foreign institution based in London, Mr Dudley saying there was a "question mark" over whether sterling would continued to be used north of the border will again do little to ease any anxieties people have about Scotland breaking away from the UK.

Mr Dudley's remarks come just ahead of David Cameron's big speech on Scotland this Friday and a couple of weeks ahead of the UK Cabinet's visit to Aberdeen, Britain's oil capital.

Scottish independence: ‘Extra costs for BP’

Scottish independence: ‘Extra costs for BP’

Bob Dudley said there would be 'uncertainty' but stressed he would still be investing in Scotland. Picture: PA

Published on the 04 February 2014

SCOTTISH independence would create extra costs for BP, according to the energy giant’s chief executive.

Bob Dudley said there are “quite big uncertainties” over currency, European links and tax regimes if Scotland becomes independent.

In an interview with the BBC, Mr Dudley said: “I’m not concerned but there’s enough uncertainty and talk about it and questions raised.

“It would create extra costs for our business. We have to duplicate the centres and do things, and again the currency question I don’t know the answer to.”

BP’s future in the North Sea in the event of independence “would depend on what it really led to”, he said.

“These investments are big, they are under way, we want to see them developed. It depends on what tax regimes are there and it depends on currency.”

He added: “We have got a lot of people in Scotland, we have got a lot of investments in Scotland.

“There’s much debate about what would happen with the currency, and of course whether there are connections with Europe or not.

“These are quite big uncertainties for us, and at the moment we are continuing to invest at a pace because these projects are under way.

“But it’s a question mark. I think all businesses have a concern.

“My personal view is Great Britain is great and it ought to stay together.”

A Yes Scotland spokesman said: “A shared currency is in the overwhelming economic interests of both Scotland and the rest of the UK.

“This was the view of the (Scottish Government’s) Fiscal Commission Working Group last year.

“With independence, the continued use of sterling has the overwhelming support of the people of Scotland and the public in the rest of the UK.”

Better Together chief Alistair Darling said: “This is perhaps the biggest intervention by a major business so far in the referendum debate.

“I hope that more companies and business leaders speak out over the coming weeks and months. This debate is far too important to be left to politicians alone.

“Bob Dudley is quite right to express concern about the issue of currency. It is far from certain what currency we would use if we vote to leave the UK.”

Labour’s shadow energy minister Tom Greatrex said: “The warning of uncertainty, instability and impact on activity from BP today is one that echoes concerns expressed by others in the energy sector, including SSE, Scottish Power and Infinis.

“As Sir Ian Wood’s influential interim report on the future of the North Sea made it clear that we need greater collaboration and co-operation to get the most from this diminishing resource. In oil and gas, as in other sectors, it makes no sense for us to be talking about putting up barriers and making business more
difficult.”

A Scottish Government spokesman said: “We welcome all contributions to the debate on Scotland’s future, and would be happy to meet with Mr Dudley to discuss the future of the industry in an independent Scotland.

“He has made clear these are his personal views and that the company is continuing to invest in Scotland.

“Record amounts of money are being invested in the offshore sector, by BP and others, with £100 billion of investment planned by companies. And more than half of oil and gas reserves by value are still to be extracted.

“BP is a company which already operates in more than 80 independent countries around the globe, and an independent Scotland with full control of its economy and huge resources will offer an attractive and stable environment for businesses in the offshore and other sectors.

“And an independent Scotland will keep the pound as part of a sterling area, which is in the overwhelming economic interests of the rest of the UK.”

Asked about Mr Dudley’s comments, Prime Minister David Cameron’s official spokesman said: “I think it is important when one of the UK’s leading businesses and investors and an important employer raises this issue.

“He is making a very important point.”

Several Government ministers have already made clear that it is “highly unlikely” that an independent Scotland would be able to join a currency union with the remaining UK, said the spokesman.

Corruption in the EU costs business €120bn a year, study finds

Corruption in the EU costs business €120bn a year, study finds
By James Fontanella-Khan in Brussels

Corruption has increased since the sovereign debt crisis hit the eurozone and costs the EU economy about €120bn a year in lost tax revenues and foreign investment, according to a European Commission study.
The impact of rising corruption is having a devastating impact on business activity, the study found. A third of companies participating in a public tenders for government contracts have been prevented from doing so due to corruption, according to a Commission survey of European businesses.

The Commission’s report, which found that EU member states have continuously failed to address conflicts of interest between politicians and business, could taint the bloc’s image as a relatively clean place to do business.

Sixty-nine per cent of the 7,842 business surveyed by the EU said paying bribes and exploiting political connections were the easiest ways to obtain certain public services.

Countries under scrutiny in the wake of the eurozone crisis continue to have corruption problems, the study found, despite reform efforts mandated by Brussels.

Nearly all companies interviewed in Greece, Italy and Spain, for example, complained that corruption was widespread in their country.

Cecilia Malmstrom, the European commissioner for home affairs, said corruption was undermining democratic accountability in all 28 members of the EU.

“Corruption erodes trust in public institutions and in democracy, it undermines our internal market, it hampers foreign investment, it costs taxpayers millions, and in many cases it helps organised crime groups do their dirty work,” she said on Monday.

According to the survey, three quarters of EU citizens believed corruption was widespread, while more than half said that it had increased over the past three years. Companies were also asked whether they had been expected to pay a bribe.

“Trust in Europe’s leaders is falling because relations between business and the public sector take place in the dark, leaving citizens with questions about whose interests are being taken care of,” said Miklos Marschall, deputy managing director of Transparency International.

“To bridge the gap between politics and people, there must be greater transparency in public life and more public officials held to account for their actions,” he added.

Denmark, Finland, Luxembourg and Sweden confirmed their reputation for being clean, with very low experience of bribery and where perceptions of widespread corruption were below the EU average of 74 per cent.

In the UK, experience of bribery was very low, at below 1 per cent, but 64 per cent of respondents thought corruption was widespread in Britain.

Perceptions and actual experience of corruption were highest in Croatia, the Czech Republic, Lithuania, Bulgaria, Romania and Greece.

Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2014. 

Anglo Irish bosses plead not guilty

Anglo Irish bosses plead not guilty
Friday, January 31 12:33:46 அயர்லாந்து

Three former Anglo executives have entered not guilty pleas to 16 charges each of unlawfully providing financial assistance to individuals for the purpose of buying shares in the bank in 2008.

Sean FitzPatrick (64), of Whitshed Road, Greystones, Co Wicklow; William McAteer (62), of Auburn Villas, Rathgar, Dublin; and Pat Whelan (50), of Coast Road, Malahide, Dublin are due to go on trial at the Criminal Courts of Justice complex in Dublin next Tuesday.

Today marks the start of formal preliminary processes for what will undoubtedly become Ireland's trial of the century as the court begins the process to select a jury.

Sean FitzPatrick of Whitshed Road, Greystones, William McAteer of Auburn Villas, Rathgar and Pat Whelan of Coast Road, Malahide have been charged with 16 counts of providing unlawful financial assistance to individuals in July 2008 to buy shares in the bank.

The panel to select jurors is huge: Around 500 people are expected to turn up after 1,500 summonses were issued for potential service in a trial that could drag on for many months.

Fifteen jurors will be selected for the trial, as against the standard 12, a measure permitted in lengthy trials under an amendment to the 1976 Juries Act, passed last year.

Although only 12 will retire to deliberate on a verdict, three substitutes will be present throughout the trial should a juror be unable to continue.

Given the anticipated level of public interest, the Courts Service has said it will turn a vacant courtroom at the Criminal Courts of Justice complex into an overflow viewing room for the trial. On most days, members of the public will be able to watch proceedings by video link in Court One, which is usually used as a

District Court.
While the public will be admitted to the main courtroom, a large portion of the available space will be taken up by assigned seating for the legal teams and the media.
=================

War Criminal Tony Blair gives backing to Egyptian military coup, criticises Brotherhood and calls for international community to support leadership - ENB

Tony Blair backs Egypt's government and criticises Brotherhood

Former British PM says Muslim Brotherhood was stealing Egypt's revolution and army intervention has put it on right path.

Patrick Kingsley in Cairo

The Guardian, Thursday 30 January 2014 12.47 GMT

Tony Blair said the army had intervened after the Brotherhood tried to take Egypt 'away from its basic values of hope and progress'. Photograph: Chris Jackson/PA
Tony Blair has given staunch backing to Egypt's government following a meeting on Wednesday with its army leader, Abdel Fatah al-Sisi.

In a television interview on Thursday morning, Britain's former prime minister said Mohamed Morsi's Muslim Brotherhood had stolen Egypt's revolution, and the army who deposed him last July had put the country back on the path to democracy.

"This is what I say to my colleagues in the west," said Blair, visiting Egypt as a representative of the UN, the US, the EU and Russia in their attempts to mediate the Israeli-Palestinian peace process. "The fact is, the Muslim Brotherhood tried to take the country away from its basic values of hope and progress. The army
have intervened, at the will of the people, but in order to take the country to the next stage of its development, which should be democratic. We should be supporting the new government in doing that."

Morsi, Egypt's first freely elected president, was removed by Sisi following days of mass protests. His many critics said Morsi had authoritarian leanings and that his removal was essential to prevent Egypt from eventually turning into an autocratic theocracy.

Rights groups say the government that replaced him has been anything but democratic – with more than a thousand dissidents killed, thousands more arrested, and the right to free assembly and free speech severely curbed. The day before Blair's comments were aired, 20 journalists were referred to court on terrorism allegations – charges a leading rights lawyer said returned Egypt to the dictatorship of Hosni Mubarak.

Blair's office did not respond to a query about how the west could promote democracy without criticising lapses in democratic values.

In his television interview, he said: "Right here in Egypt I think it is fundamental that the new government succeeds, that we give it support in bringing in this new era for the people of Egypt. And, you know, we can debate the past and it's probably not very fruitful to do so, but right now I think it's important the whole of
the international community gets behind the leadership here and helps."

Blair's comments are in keeping with his previous comments on the region. In the past, he has been supportive of autocratic rulers toppled during the 2011 revolutions such as Hosni Mubarak and Libya's Muammar Gaddafi. His comments drew criticism from other British-based Middle East specialists.

"The Middle East is a huge region and cannot be broken down into simplistic black-and-white realities, into blocks of good and evil, or as one picture as Tony Blair continually promotes," said Chris Doyle, director of the Council for Arab-British Understanding.

"Too often the peoples in the region are presented a false choice between religious-based parties such as the Brotherhood and secular dictatorship. We should reject that. For sure the Muslim Brotherhood under Morsi failed to deliver but neither are the current Egyptian authorities [delivering].

"Dangerously, Blair and others are turning a blind eye to the suppression of human rights, the widespread arrests, the crackdown on freedom of media and the absence of rule of law. These bear the hallmarks of the security state dictatorship under Mubarak, a man Blair described in 2011 as a 'force for good' even as
his [the former dictator's] security forces were killing Egyptians in the streets."

At the time of Mubarak's overthrow in 2011, Blair warned that his removal would lead to the rise of the Muslim Brotherhood: "They are extremely well organised and well funded whereas those people who are out on the street at the moment, many of them will be extremely well intentioned people but they're not organised in political parties yet."
==============

ROBERT FISK
Thursday 30 January 2014
 If only Tony Blair could grasp the truth about Field Marshal Sisi 
Robert Fisk:

Do the British people love Blair? Do they eat Blair chocolates, and wear Blair pyjamas?

 It was, of course, utterly inevitable that Tony Blair would back Egypt’s new authoritarian leaders.
After all, can you imagine Blair – our very own Lord Blair of Kut al-Amara – stepping forth to offer his courageous, unstinting support to a democratically elected President overthrown in a military coup d’état? Can you imagine him condemning a General – no, I forget, General Abdel Fatah al-Sisi has just been made a Field Marshal – whose men have gunned down 1,000 protesters since last summer and who has now put the elected President on trial for his life as a “terrorist”? Ye Gods, if such bravery burned within the heart of Lord Blair, we would all suffer immediate cardiac arrest.

So it was that the man who brought us victory in Afghanistan and glory in Iraq – and who has always fearlessly condemned the Israeli colonisation of the West Bank – yesterday threw his entire reputation and honour behind Field Marshal Sisi, Commander-in-Chief of the Egyptian Armed Forces, Deputy Prime Minister of the Egyptian Arab Republic and Minister of Defence. The Egyptian army had “ intervened” and had done so “at the will of the people”. Thus quoth Lord Blair. And Field Marshal Sisi saw that it was good, and smiled upon him. But I have to admit – let’s be fair – that Field Marshal Sisi really doesn’t deserve this frivolous “peace envoy”. Unlike some of the dictators with whom Blair  frolics, al-Sisi is a personally uncorrupt man. He comes from a conservative, decent family. His uncle was himself a Muslim Brother. Field Marshal Sisi spent months serving poor old Mohamed Morsi as a loyal minister before chucking him out. He even warned Morsi, faithful servant of state that he was, that a coup was on the cards. Sure, Sisi’s comrades killed hundreds of Egyptian protesters – but the Field Marshal doesn’t have the blood of hundreds of thousands of Iraqis on his hands. Besides, the Egyptian people love Sisi. Why else should Cairo be awash with Sisi chocolates and Sisi T-shirts and Sisi pyjamas? Do the British people love Blair? Do they eat Blair chocolates and wear Blair pyjamas?

Of course, for a man who said of Saddam that “he has used gas against his own people”, it must have been difficult for Lord Blair to resist the phrase – on arrival in Cairo to meet another military autocrat – that “he has used live bullets against his own people”. Neither did he mention the lads of Al Jazeera banged up in
the Tora jail for “terrorism” (ho hum) – why, isn’t that just what Blair should have done with his own country’s treacherous journos when they failed to back his and George W’s crusade against World Evil?

Blair, a prosaic man, thus concentrated on the banal. Egypt had “ an ancient civilisation”, he said. Egyptians were “a great people” with “great energy and determination” – this was positively colonial in approach – and we should support these people who wanted an “open-minded society”. And that, announced Lord Blair, “ means we support the government here in Egypt”.

If he could have grasped a mere semblance of the truth, Blair would have understood the irony of the words he used of the Muslim Brotherhood. The Brotherhood, he said, “tried to take the country away from its basic values of hope and progress”. But isn’t that exactly what Blair did to his own country? Didn’t Blair – with his mendacious wars – take Britain from its basic values of hope and progress? It almost makes you wish that Sisi could have brought his chaps over to London in early 2003 to do a spot of “intervention” with the support of millions of Britons.

But Blair waffled away, apparently unaware that armies have been “intervening” rather a lot in modern history. Let’s forget for a moment that the Soviets also said that their army had “intervened” in Central Asia in 1979. But I was thinking of someone else. Austria? Czechoslovakia? Small man. Moustache. Used to be a corporal. No matter. Just comfort yourself with the thought of Lord Blair taking off his Sisi T-shirt tonight, pulling on his Sisi pyjamas and sucking away at his Sisi chocolates.